Drawing from the Experience of Nat Cat Modeling
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Viruses, contagion and tail risk

Oliver Brew, Head of Client Success, examines the lessons that can be learnt and applied to cyber risk modeling from understanding how pandemic models have evolved.

Viruses, contagion and tail risk - landing pages (no border)-1

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically influenced every aspect of how we live, work and think about systemic risk. Cyber risk models aim to understand and articulate the systemic risk potential arising from the increasingly hyper-connected technological world in which we operate both in our economy and wider society.


As the pandemic continues, with all the differences between computer and human viruses, parallels emerge in how pandemics are modeled, the methodologies employed, and the data challenges which exist. This paper seeks to compare and contrast pandemic modeling and cyber risk modeling methodologies, and understand common lessons learned in how to represent complex, rapidly-changing and challenging risks.